Tension Between China and The U.S. in Southeast Asia: How Indonesia Reacted?

 Major Dolly J. P. Hutagalung/ACSC, Flight 13/NS-601/December 12th, 2023

As a famous African proverb says, “When the elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.” Smaller and surrounding countries become victims in international relations when considerable powers compete. This is the potential result when a nation of China's magnitude emerges as a great power in the Pacific region. Xi Jinping declared that China would be a "fully developed nation," a "global leader in innovation," and "a global leader in comprehensive national power and international influence" by the middle of the century.[i] These objectives all hinge on the availability of energy sources, particularly oil. Most of China's oil is imported and is mainly delivered through the Malacca Strait and into the South China Sea (SCS). More importantly, the SCS has a lot of untapped oil that China could use for over a decade.[ii] Nevertheless, China's desire to secure its national interests in the SCS often conflicts with the interests of regional countries, particularly regarding freedom of navigation and maintaining global stability. China must establish dominance in the SCS to face these challenges by becoming a significant regional power.

Unfortunately, as political theorist John Mearsheimer notes, “great powers fear each other and always compete with each other for power.”[iii] The U.S., however, maintains a distinct foreign policy stance grounded in its National Security Strategy: it is in the national interest to produce a better future, which means a free, open, safe, and prosperous world.[iv] The U.S., as the current regional hegemony in the Western hemisphere, is being disturbed by the emergence of a new hegemony, China. If there is a collision between these two great powers, it will seriously disrupt stability in the region. The good news is that Indonesia's regional position is crucial for both major powers in their intense rivalry. Indonesia has the potential to create regional stability amidst tensions between the U.S. and China by using economic power and diplomacy, even exploiting this for its national interests. Furthermore, Indonesia must prepare for the worst-case scenario of military conflict.

Indonesia can maintain regional stability by attracting the attention of China and the United States through its economic power. An unavoidable fact is that to attain the status of a great power, a country must possess a robust economy.[v] According to the Indonesian Ministry of Transportation, Indonesia has significant geoeconomic potential because 40% of merchant ships worldwide travel through Indonesian waterways.[vi] Leveraging this opportunity, the Indonesian government can create economic cooperation regulations with China and the U.S., fostering direct economic connections facilitated and supported by Indonesia. For instance, all commercial vessels traversing Indonesian waters may incur ‘natural cleanliness insurance expenses,’ given that each vessel's refuse introduces pollution into Indonesia's maritime domain. The insurance's technical implementation and regulation could involve collaboration between China, the U.S., and Indonesia, with profits being split according to the contractual arrangement. Indonesia can promote economic cooperation between China and the U.S., increasing economic interdependence and creating constituencies that favor stable and continuing partnerships with other trading states.[vii]

Additionally, Indonesia can use its domestic market power to deepen economic cooperation with China and the U.S., which will benefit Indonesia more. Indeed, the U.S. and China are major global producers that compete and rely on substantial consumer bases to promote their respective products and services. As the country with the fourth largest population, Indonesia is a promising economic battleground for them. Notably, this enables the Indonesian government to profit from facilitating business and investment entry, particularly for Chinese and U.S. companies. By capitalizing on their investments, Indonesia can construct economic infrastructure such as airports, ports, and roads, accelerating the distribution of imported products throughout the region. In addition, developing the infrastructure in Indonesia enables domestic products to capitalize on the country's continued rapid economic expansion. Due to Indonesia's strategic significance in the rivalry between China and the U.S., the Indonesian government gains greater bargaining power; consequently, forthcoming economic collaborations have political implications and serve as diplomatic instruments.

In pursuit of regional stability, Indonesia's diplomatic prowess could serve as a tool to defuse tensions between the U.S. and China. Becoming a prominent global power is undoubtedly difficult without solid and stable alliances and partnerships to achieve one's international goals.[viii] As a strategic partner, Indonesia could employ its diplomatic influence to relay the concerns of both China and the U.S. if communication between the two nations deteriorates, thereby averting the escalation of tensions. Moreover, Indonesia's bargaining power can affect both China's and the U.S.'s foreign policies by using its international power to protect either country's interests so that both are willing to work together. For instance, Indonesia can represent the interests of the U.S. and China at any international event, including forums held by the UN, G20, ASEAN, and so forth. In the past, Indonesia has had several disagreements with China's policies, particularly in international forums and regarding national sovereignty. One notable instance has been Indonesia's opposition to China's assertion of fishing rights in the SCS, close to the Indonesian border.[ix] Indonesia's stance on China's policy may shift in response to developments in their diplomatic interests. Indonesia's strategic position towards China and the U.S. can have a positive impact by providing a fresh perspective on understanding present tensions and finding a way out between the two countries.

Moreover, Indonesia can exploit tension between China and the U.S. to gain broader regional diplomatic influence. Conflict between China and the U.S. in Southeast Asia can cause ASEAN countries to review diplomatic relations with those countries. Indonesia can capitalize on this momentum by influencing ASEAN to become stronger and more self-sufficient, allowing it to balance tensions. First, by ensuring increased stability and security in the region, which is a collective obligation of all ASEAN members. Building security cooperation through coalition partners is an initial step toward defense cooperation. Second, Indonesia persuaded ASEAN to prioritize collaboration among members, especially economic development, to improve shared prosperity and balance the result of China's influence in the region. Reducing China's dominance in Southeast Asia will promptly decrease China's chances of becoming a major power in the region, reducing U.S. fears about peer competition and eventually ensuring stability in the region. Aside from leveraging its economic and diplomatic strength to manage regional tensions, Indonesia is also preparing to anticipate the risks of the worst scenario.

In the worst possibility, Indonesia should take affirmative steps to reduce losses arising from the military conflict between China and the U.S. in the region. According to the Latin proverb “si vis pacem para belum,” which means to achieve peace, one must be ready for war. Therefore, Indonesia must be prepared if prevention efforts fail and end in military confrontation. In fact, Indonesia maintains a non-aligned foreign policy, precluding it from explicitly supporting China or the U.S. in a potential conflict. However, in the interest of humanitarianism, Indonesia may grant shelter to war victims who have sustained injuries. If the battle zone extends into Indonesian territory, Indonesia will undoubtedly have to respond to defend its borders and protect the Indonesian people. Therefore, it does not preclude the possibility of limited cooperation with conflicting parties that could assist Indonesia in maintaining its national security. Despite Indonesia's constitutional inclination towards peace, the nation must be ready to employ military power to defend its sovereignty and maintain domestic stability.

            Furthermore, Indonesia must leverage ASEAN to mitigate the ongoing conflict's adverse effects. The China-U.S. conflict will likely occur in the SCS and Taiwan, affecting nearly all Southeast Asia. Reducing the impact of competition in the SCS will be more effective by using both Indonesian and ASEAN capabilities to filter the effect from the beginning. Indonesia can further enhance its preparedness to confront impending aggression towards Indonesian territory by utilizing the ASEAN’s network to exchange intelligence on developments in the ongoing conflict in its respective regions. Besides, ASEAN nations can assist one another in a humanitarian context by transferring logistical aid to countries directly and massively impacted by conflict. Equally crucial is the possibility that the security cooperation of ASEAN nations could evolve into a more limited form of defense collaboration, thereby accelerating the conclusion of the current conflict. Indonesia gains numerous advantages by enhancing and optimizing the ASEAN alliance's role as a frontline power in addressing the Sino-American conflict in the region.

To sum up, every nation possesses distinct national interests that necessitate the development of formidable capabilities to enable global competition. The same holds true for China's rise to regional hegemony. China's emerging great power status in the region is adversely affecting the global interests of the U.S. If tensions between China and the U.S. are not handled wisely, they could cause losses for other countries, including Indonesia. In the context of U.S.-China tensions, Indonesia can bring about regional stability through diplomacy and economic power, even using this for its national objectives. However, Indonesia also needs to be ready for the worst-case scenario. Under its 1945 constitution, Indonesia must actively implement a world order based on independence, eternal peace, and social justice; therefore, Indonesia's role in maintaining stability in the region cannot be avoided. Tensions between China and the U.S. have an impact on global stability; the participation of neighboring countries and regional organizations is critical in preventing this conflict from intensifying and leading to a world war that will bring human agony.

 

Notes

            I would like to thank our Course Instructor, Dr. Michael Grumelli, Maj. Derek Malner, Maj. Matthew Lowe, Maj. Christopher Nguyen, Mr. Mardigu Wowiek, and all the students of Flight 13 for their thoughtful comments and suggestions. All errors found therein are my own.

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 [i]. Robert Haddick, "A Four-Decade to A Collision," in Fire on the Water Second Edition: China America and the Future of the Pacific (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2022), 23-25.

 [ii]. Ibid. 12-19.

 [iii]. John J. Mearsheimer, "Introduction," in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2014), 2-4.

 [iv]. President J. Biden, National Security Strategy, (Washington: The White House, 2022), 7.

 [v]. Matthew Kroenig, "The Democratic Advantage in Theory," in The Return of Great Power Rivalry: Democracy Versus Autocracy from the Ancient World to the U.S. and China (New York: Oxford University Press, USA, 2020), 15-17.

[vi]. Biro Komunikasi dan Information Publik, "Empat Puluh Persen Jalur Perdagangan Dunia Melewati Indonesia (Forty Percent of World Trade Routes Pass Through Indonesia)," Kementerian Perhubungan Republik Indonesia, last modified May 2, 2018, https://dephub.go.id/post/read/empat-puluh-persen-jalur-perdagangan-dunia-melewati-indonesia.

 [vii]. G. J. Ikenberry, "Liberal Democracy and International Relations," in A World Safe for Democracy: Liberal Internationalism and the Crises of Global Order (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2020), 33-34.

 [viii]. Kroenig. "The Democratic Advantage in Theory."16-17

 [ix]. David Shambaugh, "China's Bilateral and Regional Relationship," in China and the World (New York: Oxford University Press, USA, 2020), 285-286.