Application of the Conceptual Envelopment Theory Within U.S.-China Strategic Rivalry in the Pacific

 Major Dolly J. P. Hutagalung/ACSC, Flight 13/MT-600/August 15, 2023

        The declaration of a territorial claim known as the nine-dash line in the South China Sea, along with the One China policy, which seeks to achieve the reunification of Taiwan, hold considerable implications for global security and have substantially escalated tensions within the area. Implementing this discretionary measure has intensified the competitive landscape between the United States (U.S.) and China. The People's Republic of China (PRC) has employed an indirect strategy against the U.S., which employs the Conceptual Envelopment theory alongside various instruments of power. According to David Kilcullen, conceptual envelopment occurs when we do measures that we describe as typical peacetime rivalry. At the same time, a rival with a broader definition of warfare sees these as acts of war and responds appropriately.[i] This essay will assess the application of the Conceptual Envelopment theory within the U.S.-China strategic rivalry in the Pacific. The analysis begins by examining the PRC’s use of economic power to compete with the United States. Additionally, it explores the PRC's efforts to diminish American influence among its allies and partners.

            The first concept is the PRC’s competition with the U.S. in world economic domination. As of April 2023, PRC’s gross domestic product was $19.37 billion or second place globally, just one step behind the U.S. with $26.85 billion.[ii] It is merely a question of time until China surpasses the U.S.’s dominant position. Moreover, since 2012, the U.S. has imported goods from China with a more than $400 million valuation.[iii] Besides, China is a significant creditor to the U.S., with approximately $1 trillion holdings in debt.[iv] In fact, the U.S. has become more dependent on China. With the expansion of China's economic prowess, a heightened rivalry has emerged between the U.S. and China as they vie for dominance and exert their influence within the area. The Pacific region serves as a platform for converging economic and geopolitical interests as both nations endeavor to safeguard their economic and strategic concerns.

            On the other hand, the PRC degrades the U.S. influence with allies and partners in the Pacific. 2013 President Xi announced the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) policy to create a maritime Silk Road.[v] China provides foreign direct investment to support the development of infrastructure projects in recipient countries. Moreover, in December 2022, the BRI garnered participation from a diverse array of nations spanning all continents, with 148 countries, precisely 31 countries located around the Pacific.[vi] This policy has become a debt trap when a nation cannot repay Chinese loans. The PRC deliberately expands its BRI policy to the countries that are part of the U.S. allies and partners in the Pacific. If those countries fall into a debt trap, then indirectly, China will have a significant influence inside those countries, even able to direct a country’s policies. If this condition continues, U.S. influence will decrease significantly and lose its coalition power eventually to balance China’s coercion in the Pacific.

            To conclude, the Pacific region has witnessed an escalation in regional tensions and a rise in global security worries due to China's implementation of arbitrary policies. The Conceptual Envelopment theory pertains to the evolving operational environment in the strategic maneuvering of China in the Pacific. The PRC is utilizing its economic power and implementing the BRI to challenge and reduce American influence in the Pacific. Going forward, the U.S. must establish the range of military operations in the conflict continuum during peacetime.[vii] Otherwise, the potential consequences of this situation may strain the diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China even worse. 

 

 

Notes

        I would like to thank our Course Instructor Wing Commander Robin J. Kemp, Academic Advisor, Prof. Paul Springer, Indonesian Airforce officers, and all students of Flight 13 for their thoughtful comments and suggestions. All errors found therein are my own.

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[i]. David Kilcullen, "Conceptual Envelopment," in The Dragons and the Snakes: How the Rest Learned to Fight the West (New York: Oxford University Press, 2020), 175-176. 

[ii]. IMF, "GDP, current prices," International Monetary Fund, last modified April 2023, https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/CHN/USA. 

[iii]. Foreign Trade Data Dissemination Branch, "Foreign Trade - U.S. Trade with China," Census.gov, last modified 2023, https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html. 

[iv]. Ana Swanson, "The Contentious U.S.-China Relationship, by the Numbers," The New York Times, last modified July 7, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/business/economy/us-china-relationship-facts. 

[v]. James McBride, Noah Berman, and Andrew Chatzky, "China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative," Council on Foreign Relations, last modified February 21, 2019, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative. 

[vi]. Christoph N. WANG, "Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)," Green Finance & Development Center – Research, Advisory and Capacity Building for Greening Finance and Development, last modified 2023, https://greenfdc.org/countries-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-bri/. 

[vii]. Joint Publication (JP) 1. Doctrine for the Armed Forces of the United States, March 25, 2013, I-14.